# %pip install catboost

import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt


import sklearn
from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression
from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestRegressor
from sklearn.tree import DecisionTreeRegressor
from sklearn.model_selection import GridSearchCV, TimeSeriesSplit
from catboost import CatBoostRegressor
from sklearn.dummy import DummyRegressor
from statsmodels.tsa.seasonal import seasonal_decompose

from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
from sklearn.metrics import mean_absolute_error
import lightgbm as lgb


import warnings

try:
    df = pd.read_csv('c:/users/norfolk/documents/python/datasets/taxi.csv',index_col=[0], parse_dates=[0])
except:
    df = pd.read_csv('/datasets/taxi.csv',index_col=[0], parse_dates=[0])
size_a = len(df)

df.head()

df.info()

<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>
DatetimeIndex: 26496 entries, 2018-03-01 00:00:00 to 2018-08-31 23:50:00
Data columns (total 1 columns):
 #   Column      Non-Null Count  Dtype
---  ------      --------------  -----
 0   num_orders  26496 non-null  int64
dtypes: int64(1)
memory usage: 414.0 KB

df.isna().sum()

num_orders    0
dtype: int64

df.sort_index(inplace=True)
df = df.resample('1H').sum()
df.plot(grid = True)
plt.title('Рассемплированые данные по 1 часу')
plt.xlabel('Date')
plt.ylabel('Orders')

Text(0, 0.5, 'Orders')

df.rolling(15).mean().plot(grid = True)
plt.title('Сглаженный кадром набор данных')
plt.xlabel('Date')
plt.ylabel('Orders')

Text(0, 0.5, 'Orders')

decomposed = seasonal_decompose(df)

decomposed.seasonal['2018-04-01'].plot(xlabel ='Date', ylabel='orders',grid = True)
plt.title('Сезонность за 1 день')
plt.xlabel('Date')
plt.ylabel('Orders')
plt.show()
decomposed.seasonal['2018-04-01':'2018-04-03'].plot(xlabel ='Date', ylabel='orders',grid = True)
plt.title('Сезонность за 3 дня')
plt.xlabel('Date')
plt.ylabel('Orders')
plt.show()
decomposed.seasonal['2018-05-01':'2018-05-31'].plot(xlabel ='Date', ylabel='orders',grid = True)
plt.title('Сезонность за месяц')
plt.xlabel('Date')
plt.ylabel('Orders')
plt.show()
decomposed.seasonal.plot(xlabel ='Date', ylabel='orders',grid = True)
plt.title('Сезонность за все время')
plt.xlabel('Date')
plt.ylabel('Orders')

Text(0, 0.5, 'Orders')

decomposed.trend['2018-04-01'].plot(xlabel ='Date', ylabel='orders',grid = True)
plt.title('Тренд за 1 день')
plt.xlabel('Date')
plt.ylabel('Orders')
plt.show()

decomposed.trend['2018-04-01':'2018-04-03'].plot(xlabel ='Date', ylabel='orders',grid = True)
plt.title('Тренд за 3 дня')
plt.xlabel('Date')
plt.ylabel('Orders')
plt.show()
decomposed.trend['2018-05-01':'2018-05-31'].plot(xlabel ='Date', ylabel='orders',grid = True)
plt.title('Тренд за месяц')
plt.xlabel('Date')
plt.ylabel('Orders')
plt.show()
decomposed.trend.plot(xlabel ='Date', ylabel='orders',grid = True)
plt.title('Тренд за все время')
plt.xlabel('Date')
plt.ylabel('Orders')

Text(0, 0.5, 'Orders')

df_line = df-df.shift()
df_line['mean'] = df_line['num_orders'].rolling(15).mean()
df_line['std'] = df_line['num_orders'].rolling(15).std()
df_line.plot(title='Средние показатели', xlabel ='Date', ylabel='orders',grid = True)

<AxesSubplot:title={'center':'Средние показатели'}, xlabel='Date', ylabel='orders'>

def make_features(data, max_lag, rolling_mean_size):
    df['month'] = df.index.month
    df['day'] = df.index.day
    df['dayofweek'] = df.index.dayofweek
    df['hour'] = df.index.hour
    
    for lag in range(1, max_lag):
        df['lag_{}'.format(lag)] = df['num_orders'].shift(lag)
    
    df['rolling_mean'] = df['num_orders'].shift().rolling(1).mean()
    df.dropna(inplace=True)
    return data
make_features(df, 26, 15)
print(df.columns)

Index(['num_orders', 'month', 'day', 'dayofweek', 'hour', 'lag_1', 'lag_2',
       'lag_3', 'lag_4', 'lag_5', 'lag_6', 'lag_7', 'lag_8', 'lag_9', 'lag_10',
       'lag_11', 'lag_12', 'lag_13', 'lag_14', 'lag_15', 'lag_16', 'lag_17',
       'lag_18', 'lag_19', 'lag_20', 'lag_21', 'lag_22', 'lag_23', 'lag_24',
       'lag_25', 'rolling_mean'],
      dtype='object')

train, test = train_test_split(df, shuffle=False, test_size=0.1)

features_train = train.drop(['num_orders'], axis=1)
target_train = train['num_orders']
features_test = test.drop(['num_orders'], axis=1)
target_test = test['num_orders']

model = LinearRegression()
model.fit(features_train, target_train)
 
pred_train = model.predict(features_train)
pred_test = model.predict(features_test)

print("RMSE обучающей выборки:", mean_squared_error(target_train, pred_train)**0.5)

RMSE обучающей выборки: 25.681828044006707

warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')

splits = TimeSeriesSplit(n_splits=3)


model = DecisionTreeRegressor(random_state=12345)
parameters = {'max_depth':range(1,11,1)}

gsearch = GridSearchCV(estimator=model, cv=splits, param_grid=parameters, scoring='neg_mean_squared_error', verbose=3)
gsearch.fit(features_train, target_train)
print('Параметры:', gsearch.best_params_)
print('RMSE ', round(abs(gsearch.best_score_)**0.5))

Fitting 3 folds for each of 10 candidates, totalling 30 fits
[CV 1/3] END ....................max_depth=1;, score=-958.298 total time=   0.0s
[CV 2/3] END ...................max_depth=1;, score=-1107.106 total time=   0.0s
[CV 3/3] END ...................max_depth=1;, score=-2109.333 total time=   0.0s
[CV 1/3] END ....................max_depth=2;, score=-902.736 total time=   0.0s
[CV 2/3] END ....................max_depth=2;, score=-874.686 total time=   0.0s
[CV 3/3] END ...................max_depth=2;, score=-1690.644 total time=   0.0s
[CV 1/3] END ....................max_depth=3;, score=-912.786 total time=   0.0s
[CV 2/3] END ....................max_depth=3;, score=-873.990 total time=   0.0s
[CV 3/3] END ...................max_depth=3;, score=-1538.304 total time=   0.0s
[CV 1/3] END ....................max_depth=4;, score=-931.314 total time=   0.0s
[CV 2/3] END ....................max_depth=4;, score=-844.748 total time=   0.0s
[CV 3/3] END ...................max_depth=4;, score=-1402.764 total time=   0.0s
[CV 1/3] END ....................max_depth=5;, score=-930.048 total time=   0.0s
[CV 2/3] END ....................max_depth=5;, score=-905.239 total time=   0.0s
[CV 3/3] END ...................max_depth=5;, score=-1316.680 total time=   0.0s
[CV 1/3] END ....................max_depth=6;, score=-884.609 total time=   0.0s
[CV 2/3] END ...................max_depth=6;, score=-1006.099 total time=   0.0s
[CV 3/3] END ...................max_depth=6;, score=-1217.446 total time=   0.0s
[CV 1/3] END ...................max_depth=7;, score=-1079.051 total time=   0.0s
[CV 2/3] END ...................max_depth=7;, score=-1036.443 total time=   0.0s
[CV 3/3] END ...................max_depth=7;, score=-1310.114 total time=   0.0s
[CV 1/3] END ...................max_depth=8;, score=-1154.741 total time=   0.0s
[CV 2/3] END ...................max_depth=8;, score=-1105.401 total time=   0.0s
[CV 3/3] END ...................max_depth=8;, score=-1363.429 total time=   0.0s
[CV 1/3] END ...................max_depth=9;, score=-1136.225 total time=   0.0s
[CV 2/3] END ...................max_depth=9;, score=-1127.332 total time=   0.0s
[CV 3/3] END ...................max_depth=9;, score=-1621.441 total time=   0.0s
[CV 1/3] END ..................max_depth=10;, score=-1137.603 total time=   0.0s
[CV 2/3] END ..................max_depth=10;, score=-1268.514 total time=   0.0s
[CV 3/3] END ..................max_depth=10;, score=-1671.436 total time=   0.0s
Параметры: {'max_depth': 6}
RMSE  32

model = RandomForestRegressor(random_state=12345)
parameters = {'n_estimators':range(50,100,10), 'max_depth':range(1,11,2)}

gsearch = GridSearchCV(estimator=model,cv=splits, param_grid=parameters, scoring='neg_mean_squared_error',verbose=3)
gsearch.fit(features_train, target_train)
print('Параметры:', gsearch.best_params_)
print('RMSE ', round(abs(gsearch.best_score_)**0.5))

Fitting 3 folds for each of 25 candidates, totalling 75 fits
[CV 1/3] END ...max_depth=1, n_estimators=50;, score=-908.803 total time=   0.0s
[CV 2/3] END ..max_depth=1, n_estimators=50;, score=-1106.689 total time=   0.0s
[CV 3/3] END ..max_depth=1, n_estimators=50;, score=-2130.852 total time=   0.1s
[CV 1/3] END ...max_depth=1, n_estimators=60;, score=-911.945 total time=   0.0s
[CV 2/3] END ..max_depth=1, n_estimators=60;, score=-1109.006 total time=   0.0s
[CV 3/3] END ..max_depth=1, n_estimators=60;, score=-2126.960 total time=   0.1s
[CV 1/3] END ...max_depth=1, n_estimators=70;, score=-913.492 total time=   0.0s
[CV 2/3] END ..max_depth=1, n_estimators=70;, score=-1106.218 total time=   0.1s
[CV 3/3] END ..max_depth=1, n_estimators=70;, score=-2127.559 total time=   0.1s
[CV 1/3] END ...max_depth=1, n_estimators=80;, score=-912.209 total time=   0.0s
[CV 2/3] END ..max_depth=1, n_estimators=80;, score=-1105.466 total time=   0.1s
[CV 3/3] END ..max_depth=1, n_estimators=80;, score=-2130.176 total time=   0.1s
[CV 1/3] END ...max_depth=1, n_estimators=90;, score=-914.198 total time=   0.1s
[CV 2/3] END ..max_depth=1, n_estimators=90;, score=-1106.294 total time=   0.1s
[CV 3/3] END ..max_depth=1, n_estimators=90;, score=-2133.504 total time=   0.2s
[CV 1/3] END ...max_depth=3, n_estimators=50;, score=-753.586 total time=   0.1s
[CV 2/3] END ...max_depth=3, n_estimators=50;, score=-749.349 total time=   0.2s
[CV 3/3] END ..max_depth=3, n_estimators=50;, score=-1466.254 total time=   0.3s
[CV 1/3] END ...max_depth=3, n_estimators=60;, score=-752.536 total time=   0.1s
[CV 2/3] END ...max_depth=3, n_estimators=60;, score=-744.885 total time=   0.2s
[CV 3/3] END ..max_depth=3, n_estimators=60;, score=-1461.626 total time=   0.4s
[CV 1/3] END ...max_depth=3, n_estimators=70;, score=-755.549 total time=   0.1s
[CV 2/3] END ...max_depth=3, n_estimators=70;, score=-746.459 total time=   0.3s
[CV 3/3] END ..max_depth=3, n_estimators=70;, score=-1461.241 total time=   0.4s
[CV 1/3] END ...max_depth=3, n_estimators=80;, score=-756.927 total time=   0.2s
[CV 2/3] END ...max_depth=3, n_estimators=80;, score=-744.638 total time=   0.3s
[CV 3/3] END ..max_depth=3, n_estimators=80;, score=-1468.678 total time=   0.5s
[CV 1/3] END ...max_depth=3, n_estimators=90;, score=-755.207 total time=   0.2s
[CV 2/3] END ...max_depth=3, n_estimators=90;, score=-747.124 total time=   0.4s
[CV 3/3] END ..max_depth=3, n_estimators=90;, score=-1471.762 total time=   0.6s
[CV 1/3] END ...max_depth=5, n_estimators=50;, score=-666.541 total time=   0.1s
[CV 2/3] END ...max_depth=5, n_estimators=50;, score=-671.063 total time=   0.3s
[CV 3/3] END ..max_depth=5, n_estimators=50;, score=-1232.225 total time=   0.5s
[CV 1/3] END ...max_depth=5, n_estimators=60;, score=-660.335 total time=   0.2s
[CV 2/3] END ...max_depth=5, n_estimators=60;, score=-669.506 total time=   0.4s
[CV 3/3] END ..max_depth=5, n_estimators=60;, score=-1228.694 total time=   0.6s
[CV 1/3] END ...max_depth=5, n_estimators=70;, score=-660.506 total time=   0.2s
[CV 2/3] END ...max_depth=5, n_estimators=70;, score=-669.316 total time=   0.5s
[CV 3/3] END ..max_depth=5, n_estimators=70;, score=-1230.549 total time=   0.8s
[CV 1/3] END ...max_depth=5, n_estimators=80;, score=-665.731 total time=   0.3s
[CV 2/3] END ...max_depth=5, n_estimators=80;, score=-667.179 total time=   0.6s
[CV 3/3] END ..max_depth=5, n_estimators=80;, score=-1226.712 total time=   0.9s
[CV 1/3] END ...max_depth=5, n_estimators=90;, score=-661.751 total time=   0.3s
[CV 2/3] END ...max_depth=5, n_estimators=90;, score=-668.527 total time=   0.7s
[CV 3/3] END ..max_depth=5, n_estimators=90;, score=-1224.333 total time=   1.0s
[CV 1/3] END ...max_depth=7, n_estimators=50;, score=-620.508 total time=   0.2s
[CV 2/3] END ...max_depth=7, n_estimators=50;, score=-625.376 total time=   0.5s
[CV 3/3] END ..max_depth=7, n_estimators=50;, score=-1112.066 total time=   0.8s
[CV 1/3] END ...max_depth=7, n_estimators=60;, score=-615.918 total time=   0.3s
[CV 2/3] END ...max_depth=7, n_estimators=60;, score=-624.148 total time=   0.6s
[CV 3/3] END ..max_depth=7, n_estimators=60;, score=-1110.971 total time=   0.9s
[CV 1/3] END ...max_depth=7, n_estimators=70;, score=-616.814 total time=   0.3s
[CV 2/3] END ...max_depth=7, n_estimators=70;, score=-620.677 total time=   0.7s
[CV 3/3] END ..max_depth=7, n_estimators=70;, score=-1111.238 total time=   1.1s
[CV 1/3] END ...max_depth=7, n_estimators=80;, score=-622.238 total time=   0.4s
[CV 2/3] END ...max_depth=7, n_estimators=80;, score=-618.133 total time=   0.8s
[CV 3/3] END ..max_depth=7, n_estimators=80;, score=-1102.475 total time=   1.3s
[CV 1/3] END ...max_depth=7, n_estimators=90;, score=-620.556 total time=   0.5s
[CV 2/3] END ...max_depth=7, n_estimators=90;, score=-618.861 total time=   1.0s
[CV 3/3] END ..max_depth=7, n_estimators=90;, score=-1096.847 total time=   1.5s
[CV 1/3] END ...max_depth=9, n_estimators=50;, score=-611.116 total time=   0.3s
[CV 2/3] END ...max_depth=9, n_estimators=50;, score=-609.733 total time=   0.6s
[CV 3/3] END ..max_depth=9, n_estimators=50;, score=-1060.800 total time=   1.0s
[CV 1/3] END ...max_depth=9, n_estimators=60;, score=-607.576 total time=   0.4s
[CV 2/3] END ...max_depth=9, n_estimators=60;, score=-608.872 total time=   0.8s
[CV 3/3] END ..max_depth=9, n_estimators=60;, score=-1062.852 total time=   1.2s
[CV 1/3] END ...max_depth=9, n_estimators=70;, score=-607.167 total time=   0.4s
[CV 2/3] END ...max_depth=9, n_estimators=70;, score=-608.594 total time=   0.9s
[CV 3/3] END ..max_depth=9, n_estimators=70;, score=-1061.696 total time=   1.4s
[CV 1/3] END ...max_depth=9, n_estimators=80;, score=-608.683 total time=   0.5s
[CV 2/3] END ...max_depth=9, n_estimators=80;, score=-604.144 total time=   1.1s
[CV 3/3] END ..max_depth=9, n_estimators=80;, score=-1056.465 total time=   1.7s
[CV 1/3] END ...max_depth=9, n_estimators=90;, score=-607.542 total time=   0.6s
[CV 2/3] END ...max_depth=9, n_estimators=90;, score=-604.633 total time=   1.2s
[CV 3/3] END ..max_depth=9, n_estimators=90;, score=-1050.870 total time=   1.9s
Параметры: {'max_depth': 9, 'n_estimators': 90}
RMSE  27

cat = CatBoostRegressor() 
parametrs = {'depth' : [9,21],
              'learning_rate' : [0.2, 0.05,1],
              'iterations'    : [400]
              }

model = GridSearchCV(cat, parametrs, scoring='neg_mean_squared_error',cv = splits)
model.fit(features_train, target_train)
best_params_ = model.best_params_
print('Лучшие параметры ', model.best_params_)
print('rmse ', abs(model.best_score_)**0.5)

0:	learn: 26.9550805	total: 16.7ms	remaining: 6.68s
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Лучшие параметры  {'depth': 9, 'iterations': 400, 'learning_rate': 0.05}
rmse  27.397357857433583

%%time
lgbr = lgb.LGBMRegressor(random_state =12345)
parametrs = { 'max_depth' :[6],
             'learning_rate' : [0.01, 0.015, 0.025, 0.05, 0.1],
             'num_leaves' : [31 , 62 , 42],
             'feature_fraction' : [0,6, 0,7, 0,8, 0,9, 1],
             'min_split_gain' : [0, 0.05, 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9, 1]
             
            }

model = GridSearchCV(lgbr, parametrs, scoring='neg_mean_squared_error',cv = splits)
model.fit(features_train, target_train,verbose=False)

print('Лучшие параметры ', model.best_params_)
print('rmse ', abs(model.best_score_)**0.5)

[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
Лучшие параметры  {'feature_fraction': 1, 'learning_rate': 0.1, 'max_depth': 6, 'min_split_gain': 0.05, 'num_leaves': 31}
rmse  26.50058396859625
Wall time: 32.2 s

lgbr = lgb.LGBMRegressor(random_state =12345)
parametrs = { 'max_depth' :[6],
             'learning_rate' : [0.1],
             'num_leaves' : [31],
             'feature_fraction' : [1],
             'min_split_gain' : [0.05]
             
            }

model = GridSearchCV(lgbr, parametrs, scoring='neg_mean_squared_error',cv = splits)
model.fit(features_train, target_train,verbose=False)
predictions = model.predict(features_test)
print("RMSE тестовой выборки:", mean_squared_error(target_test, predictions)**0.5)

[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
[LightGBM] [Warning] feature_fraction is set=1, colsample_bytree=1.0 will be ignored. Current value: feature_fraction=1
RMSE тестовой выборки: 39.95219937027742

plt.figure(figsize=(12, 3))
plt.plot(target_test.index, 
         target_test,label='Test')
plt.plot(target_test.index, predictions, label='Predications')
plt.legend(['Test', 'Predications'])
plt.title('Качество модели, RMSE:{:.4}'.format(rmse))

plt.ylabel('Orders')
plt.xlabel('Datetime')

Text(0.5, 0, 'Datetime')

pred_median = np.ones(test['num_orders'].shape) * train['num_orders'].median()
print("rmse:", mean_squared_error(test['num_orders']**0.5, pred_median))

rmse: 4034.1085823567364

pred_previous = test['num_orders'].shift()
pred_previous.iloc[0] = train['num_orders'].iloc[-1]
print("rmse:", mean_squared_error(test['num_orders']**0.5, pred_previous))

rmse: 19660.646703931743

dummy_regr = DummyRegressor(strategy="median")
dummy_regr.fit(features_train, target_train)
pred_dum = dummy_regr.predict(features_test)
print("rmse:", mean_squared_error(target_test, pred_dum)**0.5)

rmse: 87.21093811714634

Полезные ссылки:¶

Общее впечатление¶

Общее впечатление (ревью 2)¶

Содержание

Прогнозирование заказов такси¶

Подготовка¶

Анализ¶

Обучение¶

Создание признаков¶

Подговка данных для моделей¶

Линейная ригрессия¶

Дерево решений¶

Случайный лес регрессии¶

СatBoost модель¶

LGBM модель¶

Тестирование¶

Проверка модели на адекватность¶

Предсказание медианой¶

Предсказание предыдущим значением¶

Проверка на адекватность DummyRegressor¶

Чек-лист проверки¶

	num_orders
datetime
2018-03-01 00:00:00	9
2018-03-01 00:10:00	14
2018-03-01 00:20:00	28
2018-03-01 00:30:00	20
2018-03-01 00:40:00	32